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Thinking

Philosophy, life skills, and the inner work behind the building.

Epic's sepsis model missed two thirds of cases and the accuracy claim was never published. Below: 0.63 measured at Michigan Medicine, 0.76 to 0.83 claimed in internal documents, and five years on it is a Teams meeting.
Essay

Epic's sepsis model missed two thirds of cases. Its accuracy claim was never published.

28 August 2026
8 min read

The figure hundreds of hospitals bought against existed only in the vendor's internal documents. Five years on, it is a Teams meeting.

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The principles held. The operating model did not. Below: classification can precede action, broke 27 June. Escalation outruns consequence, broke at hour 13. Remediation removes capability, broke 8 July.
Paper

The OpenAI–Hugging Face incident broke three assumptions in how operational resilience is actually run

27 August 2026
34 min read

Detection worked. Attribution worked. A correct diagnosis on 27 June was followed by a decision not to stop, and a fortnight later Hugging Face was breached.

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Seven of the nineteen figures measure nothing that has happened. Below: four predictions with no retrospective, one unsourced figure tracing to a remark about a 2017 column, plus an opinion range and an intention.
Essay

AI project failure rates: four questions that tell you whether the number means anything

26 August 2026
6 min read

I classified nineteen of the most-cited AI failure statistics. Seven of them measure nothing that has happened. Here are the four questions that separate the…

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The output looked like the destination. The road it took was invisible. Below: a 12-line cap with five words that lift it, two signals merged into one rule, and the road as the whole problem.
Build Log

Reviewing AI output isn't enough: one word in my prompt made the guardrail disappear

26 August 2026
9 min read

I asked for a teacher and got a lecture. The output looked like the destination. The road it took was invisible, and the road was the whole problem.

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Three incidents, one headline, three very different severities. Below: 17,600 actions in the one that mattered, an alert that fired too quietly, and two others that were not the same thing.
Essay

AI agents escaped containment: 17,600 actions, and the alert that fired too quietly

13 August 2026
8 min read

Three incidents, one headline, three very different severities. What the primary reports actually say, and what to do about it.

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A skill file is your judgement, written down and executable. Below: forty files over two years, in her own repo she arrives already running, in theirs she arrives with nothing.
Essay

Own your AI skill files, or your job becomes one

12 August 2026
7 min read

A skill file is your judgement, written down and executable. Who owns the repo decides whether that's an asset or an extraction.

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Six people nod at one sentence and mean four different projects. Below: a hard problem has an agreed objective and a disputed route, a soft problem disputes the objective itself, and most AI briefs are the second run as the first.
Essay

Soft Systems Methodology explained: Checkland's 1969 method for AI briefs nobody agrees on

10 August 2026
8 min read

Most AI projects fail on the brief, not the model: six people nod at one sentence and mean four different projects. Soft Systems Methodology, built at Lancaster from 1969 for exactly that, in plain English: rich pictures, root definitions, CATWOE, and how to run it on the next thing on your roadmap.

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AI projects fail on the problem, not the model. Below: RAND's leading root cause is that nobody agreed what problem was being solved, one brief yields four root definitions, and the fourth is never written down.
Essay

80% of AI projects fail on the problem, not the model: Soft Systems Methodology

8 August 2026
7 min read

More than 80% of AI projects fail, and RAND's leading root cause is not the technology: nobody agreed what problem was being solved. Soft Systems Methodology, built at Lancaster from 1969 for exactly that failure, gives you a way to surface the disagreement in an afternoon instead of a year.

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Kastrup's cosmic mind has no plan. Below: it is instinctive rather than deliberating, nothing is being worked towards, and it is not looking back at you.
Essay

Bernardo Kastrup's cosmic mind has no plan: what analytic idealism actually claims

31 July 2026
11 min read

The most rigorous idealist alive gives the non-duality audience far less than they want: a universal consciousness that is instinctive, has no plan, and is not looking back at you. What he actually claims, why he says it cannot be proven, and the one part that survives whoever turns out to be right.

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Tiago Forte's book Building a Second Brain propped on a working desk, beside a podcast mic, with a laptop showing the author's prompts workspace and a large monitor showing his blog in the background.
Build Log

The Prodigal Second Brain

25 May 2026
7 min read

I built a second brain in 2020 and drowned it in my own output. PARA was the right answer to the wrong era. Here is the shape that fits this one.

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Essay

You Are Not the House You Built

26 April 2026
4 min read

The third in a series. The performed self is a building you put up because contact with the real one was unbearable. Stopping it from falling down is why you are so tired.

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Essay

If It Makes You Angry, It Isn't Yours

25 April 2026
3 min read

Anthony de Mello said you know someone has been brainwashed because they get angry when you challenge their beliefs. Social media and AI have made the condition almost universal.

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Essay

Contact Is the Test

18 April 2026
4 min read

Self-awareness that doesn't produce contact with other people has gone bad. Dostoevsky figured this out in 1864.

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